Tim wrote on 03.12.09 at 09:09:10:razrx wrote on 03.12.09 at 01:46:54:All you have to do is DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH and keep an open mind. You'll connect the dots.
www.wearechange.orgfind your country in the list.
Okay, read read and read, and brief summary is that the earth is actually warming up, but the debate is to how much we as humans add to that, and that's it's terribly overhyped as the earth has always gone through cycles of heating up, and that CO emissions increase happened hundred of years after that.
I'm not sure where you read we are in a cooling phase though.
The amount of CO we dump in the atmosphere is still worrying though, and I wouldn't be surprised it adds to the global warming.
We do put CO
2 in the air, but it's really a minute factor.
Here's a sample of the emails that were found.
http://torontochange.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=334"The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can’t. The CERES data published in the August BAMS 09 supplement on 2008 shows there should be even more warming: but the data are surely wrong. Our observing system is inadequate.
Kevin Trenberth < trenbert@ucar.eduThis e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it >
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I seem to be getting an email a week from skeptics saying where’s the warming gone. I know the warming is on the decadal scale, but it would be nice to wear their smug grins away.
Phil Jones < p.jones@uea.ac.ukThis e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it >
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In any case, if the sulfate hypothesis is right, then your prediction of warming might end up being wrong. I think we have been too readily explaining the slow changes over past decade as a result of variability–that explanation is wearing thin. I would just suggest, as a backup to your prediction, that you also do some checking on the sulfate issue, just so you might have a quantified explanation in case the prediction is wrong. Otherwise, the Skeptics will be all over us–the world is really cooling, the models are no good, etc. And all this just as the US is about ready to get serious on the issue.
Mike MacCracken < mmaccrac@comcast.netThis e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it >
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Ironically, the E1-IMAGE scenario runs, although much cooler in the long term of course, are considerably warmer than A1B-AR4 for several decades! Also – relevant to your statement – A1B-AR4 runs show potential for a distinct lack of warming in the early 21st C, which I’m sure skeptics would love to see replicated in the real world… (See the attached plot for illustration but please don’t circulate this any further as these are results in progress, not yet shared with other ENSEMBLES partners let alone published).
Tim Johns < tim.johns@metoffice.gov.ukThis e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it >
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Your final sentence though about improvements in reviewing and traceability is a bit of a hostage to fortune. The skeptics will try to hang on to something, but I don’t want to give them something clearly tangible.
Phil Jones < p.jones@uea.ac.ukThis e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it >
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Looks pretty good to me. Only one issue. In our discussion of possible participants in Bern, I think (someone correct me if I’m wrong) we concluded that the last two on the list (w/ question marks) would be unwise choices because they are likely to cause conflict than to contribute to concensus [sic] and progress.
Christoph Kull < christoph.kull@pages.unibe.chThis e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it >
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Mike, I agree very much with the above sentiment. My concern was motivated by the possibility of expressing an impression of more concensus than might actually exist . I suppose the earlier talk implying that we should not ‘muddy the waters’ by including contradictory evidence worried me. IPCC is supposed to represent concensus but also areas of uncertainty in the evidence. Of course where there are good reasons for the differences in series (such as different seasonal responses or geographic bias) it is equally important not to overstress the discrepancies or suggest contradiction where it does not exist.
Keith Briffa < k.briffa@uea.ac.ukThis e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it >
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The key thing is making sure the series are vertically aligned in a reasonable way. I had been using the entire 20th century, but in the case of Keith’s, we need to align the first half of the 20th century w/ the corresponding mean values of the other series, due to the late 20th century decline. So, if we show Keith’s series in this plot, we have to comment that "something else" is responsible for the discrepancies in this case. Otherwise, the skeptics have an field day casting doubt on our ability to understand the factors that influence these estimates and, thus, can undermine faith in the paleoestimates.
Michael E. Mann < mann@multiproxy.evsc.virginia.eduThis e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it >"
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